The Insightful Trader

4th Week in a Row

by on Apr.03, 2009, under Market Commentary

The market recorded another up week this week, marking its 4th in a row. After a strong sell-off Monday to pull back to the S&P 780 level, we now stand at the 840 level with another positive week behind us. Of course this just puts us back to where we were in mid February, but it’s a welcome relief.

Today was one of the choppiest days we’ve had in awhile, rallying into the close to finish up only +39 on the Dow. Techs, other than MSFT, were leaders, led by RIMM which reported much better than anticipated after the close Thursday and managed to hold it’s after market gain today to finish up over 10 points for the day. KLAC, GOOG,IBM and NSM did their share too. The SMH closed at 20 even, up over 20% the past 3 weeks. The Q’s finished at their highest level since the end of October.

Other stocks of note today were AMZN, which broke above some horizontal resistance in the 77 range and closed over 78, not that far from its high of the past year. When everything else is still trying to regain lost ground, AMZN is now up over 100% from it’s low at 35 in November. The financials had another good day, especially in the last few minutes when JPM surged over a point in the last 30 minutes of the day. The exchange stocks did well today with CME and NDAQ  doing well. GS surged another 5 points+. 

Ag stocks were up slightly today, while solar was pretty much a mixed bag even though energy stocks had a good day led by the oil service sector. OIH gained 3.72. Real estate stocks did well as witnessed by the nearly 10% move in IYR, the DJ Real Estate Index. The weak group today were the metals as gold and silver both continued their drop. Gold was off another 12.90 to close under $900 at 896. The result was continued pullback in the precious metal stocks. The dollar made an important breakout above the 100 range against the yen today and was basically flat against the Euro.

So where do we go from here? It’s starting to look a little toppy short term, but not extremely so. Everyone is talking about the 850 level being an important resistance point, but I feel we could push higher than that to maybe the 875ish range before we hit too much resistance. With the incredible move we’ve already had, it’s hard to get excited about chasing anything here, but as we know the market can keep climbing on weak volume. There doesn’t seem to be much selling coming into any pullbacks. Everyone is giddy over the Feds recent moves and the worldwide monetary expansionist policies. Even a terrible jobs number was met with the refrain that the worse is over. All I can say is keep tight stops but don’t get caught trying to pick the top either.



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