The Insightful Trader

Another Early Fake

by on Mar.08, 2009, under Market Commentary

The NFP came and went with not much reaction initially. Numbers for once were about in-line with what was expected but the big kicker was a revision showing that we had  lost even more jobs than reported from past months by another 160,000. The bulls were determined though, so we initially had a nice surge into positive territory which, surprise, surprise, was immediately sold into so that by 10:30 we were back where we had started and by 11 were definitely in the red. That’s where we remained the rest of the day finally working our way down close to the next support  area before staging a pretty healthy looking rally, on decent volume, the last 30 minutes of the day to barely finish in the green. Not the kind of bottom I was looking for if indeed it was a short term bottom. Flip a coin, not sure anyone knows at this stage.

I have to admit the most encouraging thing I saw all day was Cramer and others picking bottoms a 1000 points or further away. Much as all the pundits were calling for $250 oil and the DOW hitting 16,000 almost exactly at the top, perhaps this is a good sign that maybe we actually are close to a short term bottom. Have to admit, it looks pretty bleak out there. Speaking of pundits and their reporting, the hottest video on the internet right now is John Stewart’s takedown of CNBC on Comedy Central. This is a must see if you haven’t seen it yet.

I’ve got two charts for you to take a look at , the first is the 5min from Friday which looks a little encouraging whereas the following 30min still looks pretty grim.

spx-5min06feb09

spx-30min06feb09

As long as we hold 645ish area I ‘m still somwhat hopeful that we have the potential to make some type on meaningful bounce here.

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