The Insightful Trader

Hanging on by a Thread

by on Feb.03, 2009, under Market Commentary

A rather murky day in the market. The market opened on its low of the day at a moderate support area and managed to see-saw its way higher the rest of the day.  It was not a pretty day however as the S&P opened on its S1 pivot, bounced close to its central pivot on the 3min chart, came back down to test again and then made its move to the high of the day before some late selling eased it off its high to close at 825 level.  The NAZwas by far the stonger of the indexes today with a slightly over 1% gain, while the SPX was basically flat and the DJI down nearly 1%. Many of the techs, ie MSFT, BRCM, CSCO and INTC had respectable positive moves today. However, nearly everything commodity related was weak today with oil pulling back down to its support line and even gold taking a breath. It’s notable that USO closed at an all time low for the 21/2 year old oil fund. A little surprising was a nice move in some of the natural gas stocks which have been pummeled for the past 5 months. Can you say oversold?

The dollar continued to hold strong though slightly weaker overnight here as I write. So where do we go from here? Later today we have auto and truck sales which are sure to be dismal and then we have a slew of employment numbers coming with ADP leading off Wednesday. However I believe the major news-maker may be the release of a decision about the formation a so-called ‘bad bank’ which has been tossed around like a hot potato with nearly everyone afraid to take a stand on it one way or the other. One of those decisions that no matter which side you’re on has a good chance of being proven wrong at some point. If recent history any indication, that proof of a bad decision can come about shortly as our leaders ponder which black hole the TARP money disappeared into.

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